AAON, Inc. (AAON) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Major Q1 2026 beat and guidance reset: record net sales rose 54.3% YoY to $496.9M, EPS rose 37.1% to $0.48, backlog hit a record $2.1B, and 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to 40%-45%. Data-center demand and a 49% 21-day stock gain support near-term strength.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Strong Margins ⢠Weak Cash Flow ⢠Premium Valuation AAON remains fundamentally profitable with healthy margins and moderate leverage, but weak cash conversion and heavy capex are pressuring free cash flow while valuation stays demanding.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Strong uptrend ⢠Breakout hold ⢠Overextended rally Support Level: $98.00-$100.00 Resistance Level: $139.66 AAON remains technically bullish over the last month after a decisive breakout above $100 and a fast rebound to $139.66, but the sharp recent surge leaves it overextended and vulnerable to a near-term pullback toward $98-$100 support.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Record backlog ⢠Data center demand ⢠Raised guidance AAON delivered blowout Q1 2026 results with record sales, a doubled backlog, and a raised outlook, sending the stock to all-time highs on surging data center demand.
AI Summary
AAON has evolved into a high-expectation growth story driven by record backlog and data-center demand, but with margins, free cash flow, and valuation all dependent on flawless capacity ramp and backlog conversion, the stock now offers upside only if execution stays on track.
Description
AAON, Inc. engineers, manufactures and sells heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment across the United States and Canada through its AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products and BasX segments. Its product range includes packaged and modular systems, chillers, coils and controls designed for commercial, institutional and industrial settings such as retail, manufacturing, education, lodging, supermarkets, data centers and healthcare. The company distributes via independent representative firms and an internal sales organization and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, having been incorporated in 1987.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8 | May 15 | AAON | AAON, Inc. | Major Q1 2026 beat and guidance reset: record net sales rose 54.3% YoY to $496.9M, EPS rose 37.1% to $0.48, backlog hit a record $2.1B, and 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to 40%-45%. Data-center demand and a 49% 21-day stock gain support near-term strength. | Active | -4.3% |