Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Q1 2026 was a major upside catalyst: sales rose 54.3% to a record $496.9M, backlog reached a record $2.1B, and 2026 revenue guidance was raised to 40%-45%. Data-center demand and higher throughput support visibility, with the stock up about 44% over 21 trading days.
Loading chart data...
AI Analyst Overview
Loading chart data...
Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Profitability Solid ⢠Cash Flow Weak AAON remains profitable with moderate leverage and solid working capital, but thin cash, weak free cash flow, and a very rich valuation make the stock look stretched. Valuation: AAON appears expensive relative to its cash generation, suggesting limited near-term value unless free cash flow improves materially.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Downtrend intact ⢠Oversold rebound ⢠Resistance capped Support Level: $86-$89, with secondary support at $90-$93 Resistance Level: $101-$103 AAON has been in a clear short-term downtrend over the last month, but the rebound from the 7/29 low and higher closes into 8/07 show stabilization while $101-$103 remains the key resistance to prove a durable reversal.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Earnings setup ⢠Mixed ownership ⢠Board expansion AAON heads into its Aug. 10 Q2 call with expected earnings growth, but mixed institutional flows, unusual options activity, and board expansion suggest heightened scrutiny ahead of results.
AI Summary
AAON is now a backlog-rich execution story with strong near-term demand visibility, but until it stabilizes gross margin and turns heavily capex-driven free cash flow positive, the stock remains vulnerable because valuation is not yet supported by clean cash conversion.
Description
AAON, Inc. engineers, manufactures and sells heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment across the United States and Canada through its AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products and BasX segments. Its product range includes packaged and modular systems, chillers, coils and controls designed for commercial, institutional and industrial settings such as retail, manufacturing, education, lodging, supermarkets, data centers and healthcare. The company distributes via independent representative firms and an internal sales organization and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, having been incorporated in 1987.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | May 22 | AAON | AAON, Inc. | Q1 2026 was a major upside catalyst: sales rose 54.3% to a record $496.9M, backlog reached a record $2.1B, and 2026 revenue guidance was raised to 40%-45%. Data-center demand and higher throughput support visibility, with the stock up about 44% over 21 trading days. | Closed | -0.7% |
| May 8 | May 15 | AAON | AAON, Inc. | Major Q1 2026 beat and guidance reset: record net sales rose 54.3% YoY to $496.9M, EPS rose 37.1% to $0.48, backlog hit a record $2.1B, and 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to 40%-45%. Data-center demand and a 49% 21-day stock gain support near-term strength. | Closed | -3.0% |