AAON, Inc. (AAON) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Q1 2026 was a major upside catalyst: sales rose 54.3% to a record $496.9M, backlog reached a record $2.1B, and 2026 revenue guidance was raised to 40%-45%. Data-center demand and higher throughput support visibility, with the stock up about 44% over 21 trading days.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Strong margins ⢠Weak cash flow ⢠High liquidity AAON remains financially solid with healthy profitability, strong liquidity, and moderate leverage, but weak free cash flow and a very rich valuation make cash conversion the key watchpoint.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Rebound Recovery ⢠Range Bound ⢠Sharp Reversal Support Level: $130-$133 Resistance Level: $139-$143 AAON is modestly higher over the last month, but the rebound remains range-bound, with support near $130-$133 and resistance around $139-$143.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠BASX Backlog ⢠AI Demand ⢠Margin Pressure AAON is gaining momentum as an AI/data center cooling play, with rising BASX backlog and strong demand boosting growth prospects despite near-term margin pressure and valuation concerns.
AI Summary
AAON should now be viewed less as a traditional HVAC name and more as a high-expectation data-center cooling growth story: its record backlog and 40%â45% revenue outlook support near-term upside, but negative free cash flow, margin pressure, and a rich valuation mean the stock likely works only if management executes flawlessly on capacity ramp and backlog conversion.
Description
AAON, Inc. engineers, manufactures and sells heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment across the United States and Canada through its AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products and BasX segments. Its product range includes packaged and modular systems, chillers, coils and controls designed for commercial, institutional and industrial settings such as retail, manufacturing, education, lodging, supermarkets, data centers and healthcare. The company distributes via independent representative firms and an internal sales organization and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, having been incorporated in 1987.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | May 22 | AAON | AAON, Inc. | Q1 2026 was a major upside catalyst: sales rose 54.3% to a record $496.9M, backlog reached a record $2.1B, and 2026 revenue guidance was raised to 40%-45%. Data-center demand and higher throughput support visibility, with the stock up about 44% over 21 trading days. | Closed | -0.7% |
| May 8 | May 15 | AAON | AAON, Inc. | Major Q1 2026 beat and guidance reset: record net sales rose 54.3% YoY to $496.9M, EPS rose 37.1% to $0.48, backlog hit a record $2.1B, and 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to 40%-45%. Data-center demand and a 49% 21-day stock gain support near-term strength. | Closed | -3.0% |