Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 18, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) exhibits strong short-term momentum with a recent earnings beat, 52% YoY MRD revenue growth, raised guidance, and technical breakout above the upper Bollinger Band, complemented by favorable biotech sector tailwinds.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Improving margins ⢠Strong liquidity ⢠Negative free cash ADPT recently returned to modest profitability with strong gross/EBITDA margins and ample short-term liquidity, but prior large losses, negative free cash flow, significant accumulated deficit and debt-for-equity leverage alongside rich valuation pose clear risks.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Range-bound trading ⢠Repeated support ⢠Failed breakouts Support Level: $15.5â$15.7 Resistance Level: $18.26â$18.3 Over the last month ADPT has been consolidating between roughly $15.5â$18.3, testing resistance near $18.26 on 2026-01-12 and holding support around $15.7 while failing to sustain breakouts.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Revenue surge ⢠Spinout funding ⢠Insider sales Adaptive Biotechnologies reported robust Q4 and FYâ2025 revenue growth (+51% Q4, +55% FY), launched a $15M spinout, and saw notable insider sales alongside institutional buying.
AI Summary
ADPT has shifted from a binary R&D bet to a revenue-scaled, high-margin growth story driven by clonoSEQ MRDâmaking commercialization execution, margin expansion, and payer/pharma adoption the key determinants of whether it reaches sustainable profitability. Monitor audited FY2025 confirmation, continued MRD reimbursement/pharma backlog realization, sequencing gross-margin sustainability, and cash-burn versus MRD adjusted EBITDA (a decisive breakout above ~$18.3 or breakdown below ~$15.5 would confirm market conviction or deterioration).
Description
Adaptive Biotechnologies is a commercial-stage company that develops immune-based diagnostics and therapeutics, offering sequencing and clinical assays to detect and monitor cancer, infectious diseases and immune-related conditions. Its portfolio includes research and clinical immunosequencing products and laboratory diagnostics for minimal residual disease and past infection detection, and it supports life-science research, clinical diagnostics and drug discovery. The company maintains strategic collaborations with Genentech on neoantigen-directed T-cell therapies and with Microsoft on computational diagnostic efforts; it was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 | Dec 2 | ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) exhibits strong short-term momentum with a recent earnings beat, 52% YoY MRD revenue growth, raised guidance, and technical breakout above the upper Bollinger Band, complemented by favorable biotech sector tailwinds. | Closed | -8.0% |