Air Lease Corporation (AL) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 18, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Air Lease Corporation presents a hot idea with strong Q2 earnings beat (+314% net income YoY), increasing aircraft deliveries, improved balance sheet liquidity (~$7.9B), and bullish technical signals with ~10.8% August gains, supporting near-term price appreciation.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Improving margins ⢠High net debt ⢠Negative free cash flow AL displays improving operating profitability and cheap earnings multiples but is constrained by very high net debt, sustained negative free cash flow, and weak liquidity, making it a value opportunity with substantial solvency risk.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Tight consolidation ⢠Low volatility ⢠Support forming Support Level: $64.00 Resistance Level: ~$64.50 Over the last month AL has traded in a very tight range just above $64 with low volatility and no clear directional momentum, implying a near-term support around $64 but limited upside until an upper-range breakout.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Fleet modernization ⢠Rising costs ⢠Investor caution Air Lease is accelerating fleet modernization (first A321XLR in Asia, +10 additions) but faces rising costs, liquidity and earnings pressures that have dampened investor sentiment.
AI Summary
Air Lease is now a transaction-led story where the $65 takeover and timing of deal financing/asset salesânot fleet growthâwill drive near-term upside or sharp downside, so investors should shift to a hold/watch posture and monitor definitive deal close, financing terms, and accelerated asset-sale cadence as the primary catalysts. If the deal closes with timely financing and material deleveraging via sales, the valuation gap closes; if it stalls or financing strains, equity risk rises materially.
Description
Air Lease Corporation acquires commercial jet aircraft and leases them to airlines around the world, while also selling aircraft from its lease portfolio to other lessors, financial firms, carriers and investors. The company provides fleet management services to third-party owners and, as of December 31, 2021, reported a fleet of 382 aircraft (278 narrowbody and 104 widebody). Incorporated in 2010, it is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 | Sep 9 | AL | Air Lease Corporation | Air Lease Corporation presents a hot idea with strong Q2 earnings beat (+314% net income YoY), increasing aircraft deliveries, improved balance sheet liquidity (~$7.9B), and bullish technical signals with ~10.8% August gains, supporting near-term price appreciation. | Closed | -0.7% |