Alumis Inc. Common Stock (ALMS) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 18, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Selected due to recent Phase 3 clinical trial success on 2026-01-07 driving strong near-term momentum and technical breakout; event-driven upside expected from FDA submission and regulatory catalysts.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠High liquidity ⢠Severe cash burn ⢠Significant dilution ALMS has strong liquidity and low leverage but negligible revenue, large R&D-driven operating losses and negative cash flow coupled with substantial share dilution, making its current valuation questionable.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Strong breakout ⢠Rapid advance ⢠Pullback risk Support Level: $17.90 Resistance Level: $12.00 ALMS rallied strongly last month from about $9.70 to $23.90, confirming a breakout above prior resistance near $12 but risking a short-term pullback after a sharp early-January spike.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Phase 3 success ⢠Upsized $175M ⢠Insider buying Alumis surged after Phase 3 envudeucitinib wins and an upsized $175M offering with insider buys, positioning it for an H2 2026 NDA submission.
AI Summary
ALMS has shifted from a speculative, preâcommercial biotech to a deârisked, catalystâdriven commercial opportunity after Phase 3 success and a large equity raise, but the investment now hinges on successful FDA/CMC interactions, payer reimbursement and execution of a costly launch â any setbacks will likely force further dilution. Investors should watch NDA/CMC progress, early payer/pricing signals, and partnership announcements as the primary triggers that will materially compress upside or force additional financing.
Description
Alumis Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing allosteric TYK2 inhibitors to treat autoimmune conditions. Its lead program, ESK-001, is in clinical development for dermatologic, systemic and ocular autoimmune disorders, while A-005 is a CNS-penetrant candidate intended for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative indications. The company was incorporated in 2021, renamed from Esker Therapeutics in January 2022, and is based in South San Francisco, California.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7 | Jan 14 | ALMS | Alumis Inc. Common Stock | Selected due to recent Phase 3 clinical trial success on 2026-01-07 driving strong near-term momentum and technical breakout; event-driven upside expected from FDA submission and regulatory catalysts. | Closed | +35.8% |