Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 18, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Near-term hot idea marked by strong FY Q4 revenue growth, multi-billion dollar backlog and multi-year contracts in defense and infrastructure sectors, recent 37% price surge with strong technical breakout, solid cash flow generation, and expected margin expansion despite modest current profitability and high valuation.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Strong cash flow ⢠Weak profitability ⢠High leverage AMTM generates substantial revenue and healthy operating/ free cash flow but delivers negligible net earnings, high leverage, and asset-quality risks that make its current valuation look stretched.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Steady upward ⢠Held support ⢠Broke resistance Support Level: $29.00 Resistance Level: $31.50 Over the last month AMTM maintained a steady uptrend from about $29.00 to $34.80, holding support near $29.00 and breaking resistance around $31.50, suggesting continued upside but watch for consolidation or pullbacks.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠$47B backlog ⢠Institutional buying ⢠FCF & deleveraging Amentum's $47B backlog, rising bookings, institutional buying, and focus on highâmargin sectors drove a buy upgrade and set the company up for FCF growth, deleveraging and potential M&A into 2026.
AI Summary
Amentum has meaningfully reâranked from a leveraged, earningsâdriven turnaround to a backlogâandâFCF story where deleveraging to <3.0x and steady backlog conversion into highâmargin space/nuclear work are the primary drivers of shareholder value. Monitor quarterly FCF vs. guidance, net leverage progress, and any award protests/timing on major contractsâmisses on conversion or delayed payments would rapidly erode the current valuation premium.
Description
Amentum Holdings, Inc. delivers technical and operational services to government and commercial clients, organized into Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence business units. The Critical Mission Solutions unit supports missile defense testing, training and operations while providing engineering, IT and environmental services for defense, space and energy customers; the Cyber & Intelligence unit supplies cyber training, data analytics, communications and geospatial capabilities to national security and intelligence customers. The company was formed in November 2019 and is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | Dec 3 | AMTM | Amentum Holdings, Inc. | Near-term hot idea marked by strong FY Q4 revenue growth, multi-billion dollar backlog and multi-year contracts in defense and infrastructure sectors, recent 37% price surge with strong technical breakout, solid cash flow generation, and expected margin expansion despite modest current profitability and high valuation. | Closed | -2.6% |