ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 19, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
ASML benefits from strong Q3 (€7.5B sales), optimistic Q4 revenue guidance (€9.2-9.8B), AI-driven semiconductor demand, technical breakout above $1250 with volume support, and strategic portfolio activity, making it a compelling short-term hot idea in semiconductors.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: • Exceptional ROE • Rich valuation • Weakening cash-flow ASML exhibits industry-leading profitability and strong FY free cash generation but trades at rich multiples and faces concerning intra-year cash-flow deterioration and working-capital strain that increase execution risk.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: • Strong uptrend • Healthy pullbacks • Near-term exhaustion Support Level: $1200–$1250 Resistance Level: $1300–$1350 Over the last month ASML has trended strongly higher from ~1075 to ~1358, showing higher highs/lows and solid $1200–$1250 support but nearing overbought levels that raise short-term pullback risk.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: • EUV demand surge • Record market cap • China revenue dip ASML hit record highs and topped a $500B market cap as AI- and memory-driven demand for its near-unique EUV tools fuels a strong backlog and analyst upgrades, despite near-term China weakness and geopolitical/valuation risks.
AI Summary
ASML remains a uniquely advantaged, high‑margin franchise whose long-term runway (AI, DRAM, High‑NA) is intact, but rich valuation and recent momentum leave very little room for execution or regional‑demand misses. Investors should closely monitor quarterly cash conversion, 2026 China bookings cadence, and High‑NA commercialization timelines — any sustained cash‑flow weakness, China rephasing, or High‑NA delays could trigger sharp downside.
Description
ASML designs, manufactures and services semiconductor production equipment, with a core portfolio that includes lithography systems (notably extreme ultraviolet and deep ultraviolet), wafer metrology and inspection tools, and the associated control and computational software. The company also offers refurbishment, upgrades and customer support, and sells its products and services to chipmakers worldwide; it was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 | Jan 21 | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | ASML benefits from strong Q3 (€7.5B sales), optimistic Q4 revenue guidance (€9.2-9.8B), AI-driven semiconductor demand, technical breakout above $1250 with volume support, and strategic portfolio activity, making it a compelling short-term hot idea in semiconductors. | Active | +7.5% |
| Jan 7 | Jan 14 | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Strong Q3 2025 results with accelerating Q4 revenue guidance, AI-driven demand for semiconductor equipment, technological leadership in EUV/High-NA lithography, and 17% price rise over 21 days support near-term upside despite cash flow challenges. | Closed | +2.9% |
| Dec 4 | Dec 11 | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | ASML benefits from strong AI-driven semiconductor demand with Q3 earnings beat and raised guidance, large bookings jump, strategic AI partnerships, share buybacks, and robust technical momentum (+10.8% over 21 days), though near-term geographic and cash flow risks warrant caution. | Closed | +1.1% |
| Oct 13 | Oct 20 | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | ASML displays strong short-term upside supported by robust Q2 results, a €33B backlog, ~15% revenue growth target, elevated but solid technical momentum, recent analyst upgrades, and dominant EUV lithography positioning, with AI-driven semiconductor demand underpinning sustained growth amid managed macro and geopolitical risks. | Closed | +5.8% |