CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Mar 14, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Short-term fertilizer winner: FY2025 delivered $2.89B adjusted EBITDA, ~$1.8B FCF and strong margins, with tight nitrogen markets and lowâcarbon premium initiatives supporting outlook. The stock has rallied ~40% in 21 days and trades ~24% above its 21âday SMA, reflecting strong momentum as oil/geopolitical risks support fertilizer pricing. Nearâterm upside remains on momentum and sector tailwinds, with buybacks and dividend underpinning demand.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠High profitability ⢠Strong liquidity ⢠Meaningful leverage CF is highly cash-generative with exceptional margins and conservative multiples, but moderate leverage, heavy capex and minority/OCI items warrant monitoring.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Strong uptrend ⢠Overextended rally ⢠Pullback risk Support Level: $96â$100 Resistance Level: $136.00 CF is in a strong shortâterm uptrend, trading ~30% above lateâFeb levels and materially stretched above its lastâmonth SMA (~$105.10), which raises upside interest but also risk of a nearâterm pullback to the $96â$100 support zone or toward the moving average.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Strong earnings ⢠Tight supply ⢠Governance probe CF Industries delivered stronger-than-expected FY/Q4 2025 earnings and cash generation, fueling a sharp share rally on tight global nitrogen markets and fertilizer geopolitics, but rising natural gas costs and a shareholder fiduciary-duty probe add margin and governance risk.
AI Summary
CF has transitioned from a pure commodity cyclicality to a highâmargin, cashâgenerative nitrogen platform with real optionality from lowâcarbon ammonia/CCS and aggressive buybacks, meaning upside now depends as much on durable FCF conversion and Blue Point commercialization as on commodity prices. Investors should therefore watch 2025 FCF trends, gas spread moves, and Blue Point/CCS execution/milestones closelyâsuccessful commercialization or sustained buybacks could re-rate the stock, while gasâspread reversals or project delays would quickly compress earnings and reverse recent multiple expansion.
Description
CF Industries is a global manufacturer and distributor of hydrogen- and nitrogen-based chemicals used in fertilizer production, energy applications and emissions-abatement processes. Its product mix centers on ammonia, urea and nitrate-based fertilizers as well as related industrial liquids and emissions-control products, sold to cooperatives, independent distributors, traders, wholesalers and industrial consumers. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Mar 20 | CF | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | Short-term fertilizer winner: FY2025 delivered $2.89B adjusted EBITDA, ~$1.8B FCF and strong margins, with tight nitrogen markets and lowâcarbon premium initiatives supporting outlook. The stock has rallied ~40% in 21 days and trades ~24% above its 21âday SMA, reflecting strong momentum as oil/geopolitical risks support fertilizer pricing. Nearâterm upside remains on momentum and sector tailwinds, with buybacks and dividend underpinning demand. | Active | +0.0% |
| Mar 3 | Mar 10 | CF | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | Clear near-term âhotâ setup: Q4/FY2025 beat with very strong cash generation (EPS $8.97, FCF ~$1.7â1.8B, EBITDA margin ~42%), tight fertilizer supply-demand fundamentals, and a 12.5% threeâweek price rally supported by industry tailwinds. Momentum is strong but extendedâbest traded as a buy-the-dip or tightâstop momentum long around support near ~$99âmidâ90s, targeting a further 6â12% move. | Closed | +3.6% |