CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Tight global nitrogen supply, favorable US–EU gas spreads, strong FCF (~$1.8B) and active buybacks/dividends have driven ~20% 21‑day gains, though the stock just saw a sharp one‑day pullback; with resistance near 137.6 and strong fertilizer pricing into the planting season, a resumption of the up‑leg offers attractive near‑term upside.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: • Strong Margins • Solid Cash Flow • Elevated Leverage CF looks attractively valued given strong margins, solid free cash flow conversion, and improving liquidity, though elevated leverage and intangible-heavy assets remain the main risks.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: • Lower highs • Support test • Failed bounce Support Level: $112–$113 Resistance Level: $116.5–$117.5 CF has weakened over the last month into a short-term downtrend, trading near the bottom of its range with $112–$113 support in focus and $116.5–$117.5 as the first resistance zone.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: • Tight Supply • Strong Pricing • Valuation Debate CF Industries is benefiting from strong nitrogen pricing, tight global supply, and solid demand, but recent gains may already reflect much of the upside despite continued fundamental strength.
AI Summary
CF should be viewed less as a plain fertilizer commodity stock and more as a cash-rich, low-cost nitrogen winner whose strong FCF and margins are being driven by a temporarily tight market, but the key risk is that the investment case weakens quickly if nitrogen pricing normalizes before new capacity arrives.
Description
CF Industries is a global manufacturer and distributor of hydrogen- and nitrogen-based chemicals used in fertilizer production, energy applications and emissions-abatement processes. Its product mix centers on ammonia, urea and nitrate-based fertilizers as well as related industrial liquids and emissions-control products, sold to cooperatives, independent distributors, traders, wholesalers and industrial consumers. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31 | Apr 7 | CF | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | Tight global nitrogen supply, favorable US–EU gas spreads, strong FCF (~$1.8B) and active buybacks/dividends have driven ~20% 21‑day gains, though the stock just saw a sharp one‑day pullback; with resistance near 137.6 and strong fertilizer pricing into the planting season, a resumption of the up‑leg offers attractive near‑term upside. | Closed | +3.0% |
| Mar 13 | Mar 20 | CF | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | Short-term fertilizer winner: FY2025 delivered $2.89B adjusted EBITDA, ~$1.8B FCF and strong margins, with tight nitrogen markets and low‑carbon premium initiatives supporting outlook. The stock has rallied ~40% in 21 days and trades ~24% above its 21‑day SMA, reflecting strong momentum as oil/geopolitical risks support fertilizer pricing. Near‑term upside remains on momentum and sector tailwinds, with buybacks and dividend underpinning demand. | Closed | -3.6% |
| Mar 3 | Mar 10 | CF | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | Clear near-term “hot” setup: Q4/FY2025 beat with very strong cash generation (EPS $8.97, FCF ~$1.7–1.8B, EBITDA margin ~42%), tight fertilizer supply-demand fundamentals, and a 12.5% three‑week price rally supported by industry tailwinds. Momentum is strong but extended—best traded as a buy-the-dip or tight‑stop momentum long around support near ~$99–mid‑90s, targeting a further 6–12% move. | Closed | +3.5% |