Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 19, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Compelling near-term momentum fueled by 15.6% price gain over 21 days, strong Q3 2025 FCF, record backlog, strategic buyback, and stable dividend amidst a bullish gold market with all-time high gold prices and macro support. Solid financials and operational progress with upcoming Q4 2025 earnings (Feb 19) provide additional catalysts for appreciation.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Strong liquidity ⢠Low leverage ⢠Earnings volatility CGAU shows strong liquidity, low leverage and healthy cash generation, but significant quarter-to-year earnings volatility and rising inventory/receivables raise shortâterm risk.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Steady uptrend ⢠Support established ⢠Near-term caution Support Level: $15.00 Resistance Level: $16.13 CGAU has shown a steady uptrend last month, breaking ~$15.00 to establish support and rallying toward recent highs near $16.13, so watch for a confirmed hold above $15.00 or a break below it.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Strong cash position ⢠22% revenue growth ⢠>116% share surge Centerra Gold has surged on strong Q3 revenue growth, operational wins (Mount Milligan, molybdenum restart), a Buy upgrade and a $562M cash/zero-debt balance that supports self-funded expansion while shares have jumped ~116% and still look undervalued ahead of Feb 19 results.
AI Summary
Centerra has shifted from a pure commodity bet to a balanceâsheetâbacked value/growth storyâlarge cash, zero debt and disciplined buybacks/dividends mean the stock can re-rate on execution rather than just metal prices. Monitor Mount Milligan recovery/throughput improvements, Thompson Creek restart timing/capex and nearâterm inventoryâcash conversion (next quarterly results) as the binary catalysts that will validate upside or trigger downside.
Description
Centerra Gold Inc., incorporated in 2002 and based in Toronto, acquires, explores, develops and operates gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey and other international jurisdictions. The company conducts exploration for related metals including molybdenum, and its principal operating assets include the wholly owned Mount Milligan goldâcopper mine in British Columbia and the ĂksĂźt gold mine in Turkey.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8 | Jan 15 | CGAU | Centerra Gold Inc. | Compelling near-term momentum fueled by 15.6% price gain over 21 days, strong Q3 2025 FCF, record backlog, strategic buyback, and stable dividend amidst a bullish gold market with all-time high gold prices and macro support. Solid financials and operational progress with upcoming Q4 2025 earnings (Feb 19) provide additional catalysts for appreciation. | Closed | +3.8% |
| Dec 25 | Jan 1 | CGAU | Centerra Gold Inc. | Centerra Gold shows strong near-term return potential driven by record Q3 profits, robust cash flow, no debt, a 9.9% share buyback authorization, dividend payments, and gold prices at all-time highs (~$4,523/oz). Stock price gained ~14% in 3 weeks with institutional buying and strong momentum in the gold mining sector. | Closed | -3.6% |