Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Mar 7, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Churchill Downs has strong Q3 revenue and EBITDA growth with record operational metrics and supportive analyst sentiment, showing ~7% price appreciation and positive technical momentum for near-term gains.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠High EBITDA margin ⢠Weak liquidity ⢠Elevated leverage CHDN combines strong profitability and free cash generation with high ROE, but faces material solvency and liquidity risks from heavy long-term debt and negative working capital.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Downward momentum ⢠Support breached ⢠Below short-term SMA Support Level: $87.97 Resistance Level: $96.58â$100.00 CHDN is in a clear short-term downtrendâdown ~10.5% over the last month, trading ~9â10% below its 21-day SMA after breaching $87.97 support, leaving downside risk until it reclaims the mid-$90s/ $100 area.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠EPS upside ⢠Regional expansion ⢠Investor interest Churchill Downs beat Q4 EPS expectations with slight YoY improvement, signaled regional growth via Marshall Yards and Derby-week changes, and attracted fresh institutional interest.
AI Summary
Churchill Downs is shifting from a cash-generative racing/event business into a capitalâintensive regulated gaming operator where upside depends on successful HRM/Exacta rollouts, iGaming/state expansions and Victory Run capexâwhile elevated leverage (~4x net-debt/EBITDA) makes cost overruns, delays or regulatory setbacks the primary downside risk. Investors should monitor net-debt/EBITDA falling below 4.0x, early HRM/iGaming margin and revenue versus plan, and strict capex discipline as the decisive execution triggers.
Description
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a US-based racing, wagering and gaming company organized into Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming segments. The company operates pari-mutuel venues in Kentucky, an online wagering platform and retail sportsbooks, and casino operations across multiple states that include several thousand slot machines and hundreds of table games. It also provides race streaming and data services and builds pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks and off-track facilities.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22 | Dec 29 | CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | Churchill Downs has strong Q3 revenue and EBITDA growth with record operational metrics and supportive analyst sentiment, showing ~7% price appreciation and positive technical momentum for near-term gains. | Closed | -0.1% |