Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Mar 7, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Strong production growth beating guidance with 5% sequential oil output growth in Q4 2025, cost efficiencies delivering $45 million annual savings, steady free cash flow doubling in 2025, and positive technical momentum (+10% over last month) support near-term upside despite merger legal scrutiny and liquidity tightening.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠High margins ⢠Strong FCF ⢠Low liquidity CTRA delivers very strong margins and annual free cash flow with conservative longâterm leverage, but low cash, heavy capex and thin nearâterm liquidity are key risks.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Modest upside ⢠Higher lows ⢠Tight trading range Support Level: $29.90 Resistance Level: $31.71 Short-term bias is mildly bullish: last trade $31.04 sits just above the last month simple moving average (~$30.87) with higher intraperiod lows showing buyer support, but a tight range, small premium to the MA and resistance at $31.71 limit conviction and raise mean-reversion risk.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Revenue growth ⢠EPS miss ⢠Rising costs Coterra reported stronger volumes and revenue and announced an all-stock merger with Devon but missed Q4 EPS, faced rising costs and weaker crude margins amid mixed institutional flows.
AI Summary
Treat CTRA as a mergerâdriven catalyst: its attractive midâcycle FCF and valuation offer meaningful upside if the Devon allâstock deal closes and synergies are realized, but nearâterm returns are dominated by deal execution, litigation/exchangeâratio risk and commodity/liquidity sensitivity that could rapidly compress distributable cash.
Description
Coterra Energy Inc. is an independent U.S. oil and gas company engaged in exploration, development and production of hydrocarbons across multiple onshore basins. Its largest position is in the Marcellus dry gas window in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania (about 177,000 net acres), alongside significant acreage in the Permian (â306,000 net acres) and Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma (â182,000 net acres); it also operates natural gas and saltwater disposal gathering systems in Texas. The company sells produced oil, natural gas and NGLs to a mix of industrial buyers, utilities, marketers and pipeline companies, reported proved reserves of roughly 2.89 million mboe as of December 31, 2021, and is headquartered in Houston, Texas (incorporated 1989).
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2 | Feb 9 | CTRA | Coterra Energy Inc. | Strong production growth beating guidance with 5% sequential oil output growth in Q4 2025, cost efficiencies delivering $45 million annual savings, steady free cash flow doubling in 2025, and positive technical momentum (+10% over last month) support near-term upside despite merger legal scrutiny and liquidity tightening. | Closed | +9.7% |