FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 13, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Significant strategic expansion with $6B aircraft acquisitions, AI partnership with Palantir, 77% YoY segment EBITDA growth, free cash flow positive with $1B projected in 2026, and a 17% stock price gain over 3 weeks with strong technical momentum support it as a high-conviction near-term buy.
Loading chart data...
AI Analyst Overview
Loading chart data...
Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠EBITDA margin expansion ⢠Strong cash position ⢠Large long-term debt FTAI shows a marked operational and cash-flow turnaround by 2025-09-30 with much stronger margins, liquidity, and positive FCF, but significant absolute long-term debt and inventory buildup keep leverage and refinancing risk elevated.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Strong uptrend ⢠Resistance cleared ⢠Overbought risk Support Level: $210+ Resistance Level: $170â$180 (former); recent high ~$246 FTAI has ripped higher over the last month from roughly $170 to about $246, clearing $170â$180 resistance and solidifying support just above $210 but now looks potentially overbought and vulnerable to a near-term pullback.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠AI data center pivot ⢠Stock surge & volume ⢠Institutional inflows FTAI Aviation's launch of FTAI Power to convert CFM56 engines into AI data-center turbines sparked a sharp stock rally, analyst upgrades and notable institutional buying while positioning the company as a GE Vernova competitor.
AI Summary
FTAI's shift from a cyclical lessor to an assetâlight, servicesâled platform (MRE/modules, SCI equity, FTAI Power) makes sustained, repeatable free cash flow and module throughput (toward the 1,000âmodule target) the single pivotal validation of its reârated valuation. The biggest specific risk is execution and refinancing: failure to hit module/SCI funding milestones or to commercialize FTAI Power would quickly expose the ~ $3.4B debt load and high multiplesâmonitor quarterly adjusted FCF, module volumes, SCI equity closings, and any FTAI Power customer/certification updates.
Description
FTAI Aviation Ltd. acquires and owns aviation and offshore energy transport equipment and operates two businesses: Aviation Leasing and Aerospace Products. The leasing arm owned and managed 363 aviation assets as of December 31, 2023 â 96 commercial aircraft and 267 engines, including eight aircraft and 17 engines located in Russia â while the aerospace products unit designs, produces, repairs and sells aircraft engines and aftermarket components. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | Jan 7 | FTAI | FTAI Aviation Ltd. | Significant strategic expansion with $6B aircraft acquisitions, AI partnership with Palantir, 77% YoY segment EBITDA growth, free cash flow positive with $1B projected in 2026, and a 17% stock price gain over 3 weeks with strong technical momentum support it as a high-conviction near-term buy. | Closed | +22.2% |