Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 14, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Record Q2 free cash flow ($1.7B), 17% 21-day price gain, and strong gold sector tailwinds support near-term upside. Trading ~8% above 21-day moving average with technical confirmation though valuation elevated; suitable for tactical entry with risk management.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠High EBITDA margins ⢠Robust free cashflow ⢠Low net leverage Newmont's latest quarter delivers materially stronger margins, cash generation and low net leverage versus FY2024, but significant capex, modest yield and commodity-driven earnings volatility remain key constraints.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Steady ascent ⢠Resistance break ⢠Low volatility Support Level: $99.00 Resistance Level: $105.00 Over the last month NEM climbed steadily from about $98.18 to $112.96, breaching $105 resistance and holding support near $99, signaling a bullish, lowâvolatility uptrend but with overbought riskâmonitor for a corrective pullback.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Strong rally ⢠Operational gains ⢠Institutional buying Newmont's stock has rallied sharply (â81% over six months) on rising gold prices, positive analyst sentiment and institutional buys, while operational gains at Ahafo North, cost upside and Nevada Gold Mines control point to stronger cash flow and margin expansion.
AI Summary
Newmont has shifted from a cyclical growth miner to a highâcash, returnsâfocused company where future upside is driven more by sustained free cash flow and buybacks than production growth; monitor quarterly FCF cadence, buyback pace and realized gold prices as the primary value drivers. The key risk is 2026 capex and Cadia remediation/tax volatility â if those costs or gold weaken, cash returns could be sharply curtailed and valuation reverts.
Description
Newmont is a gold producer that also conducts exploration for other metals such as copper, silver, zinc and lead, operating assets across the Americas, Australia and Ghana. As of December 31, 2021, the company reported proven and probable gold reserves of 92.8 million ounces and held about 62,800 square kilometers of land. Founded in 1916, Newmont is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | Sep 29 | NEM | Newmont Corporation | Record Q2 free cash flow ($1.7B), 17% 21-day price gain, and strong gold sector tailwinds support near-term upside. Trading ~8% above 21-day moving average with technical confirmation though valuation elevated; suitable for tactical entry with risk management. | Closed | +1.0% |