Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Mar 8, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Record Q2 free cash flow ($1.7B), 17% 21-day price gain, and strong gold sector tailwinds support near-term upside. Trading ~8% above 21-day moving average with technical confirmation though valuation elevated; suitable for tactical entry with risk management.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠High margins ⢠Robust FCF ⢠Tax & capex risk As of 2025-12-31 Newmont delivers high profitability and very strong free cash flow with a netâcash position, but quarterly margin erosion, lumpy capex and a hefty tax burden pose nearâterm risks.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Below last month average ⢠Failed breakout ⢠Support cluster Support Level: $108.31â$115.09 (cluster $116â$121) Resistance Level: $128.47â$129.74 NEM shows short-term weaknessâprice (116.29) is below its last month average (~121.65) after failing a lateâFeb breakout around 128â130, with support near $108.31â$115.09/clustered $116â$121 that could limit downside.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Record FCF ⢠Heavy buybacks ⢠Lower 2026 guidance Newmont closed 2025 with strong operational and financial resultsârecord free cash flow, robust metals production and sizable buybacksâwhile 2026 guidance flags lower gold output, higher costs and increased capex that could pressure nearâterm cash flow.
AI Summary
Newmont has become a structurally stronger, shareholderâfriendly freeâcashâflow generator whose returns now depend as much on disciplined capital allocation and flawless execution of 2026 production/capex sequencing as on gold prices, while escalating taxes/royalties, reserve cuts and tailings/project risks are the key nearâterm threats that could materially compress FCF and force buyback tradeoffs.
Description
Newmont is a gold producer that also conducts exploration for other metals such as copper, silver, zinc and lead, operating assets across the Americas, Australia and Ghana. As of December 31, 2021, the company reported proven and probable gold reserves of 92.8 million ounces and held about 62,800 square kilometers of land. Founded in 1916, Newmont is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | Sep 29 | NEM | Newmont Corporation | Record Q2 free cash flow ($1.7B), 17% 21-day price gain, and strong gold sector tailwinds support near-term upside. Trading ~8% above 21-day moving average with technical confirmation though valuation elevated; suitable for tactical entry with risk management. | Closed | +1.0% |