Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Mar 9, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Refiner with strong cash and buyback catalysts: 2025 net income $369M, adjusted EBITDA $633M and ~$296M FCF support a new $250M buyback after retiring ~10% of shares in 2025. SAF partnership with Hawaiian/Alaska Airlines and distillateâheavy exposure benefit from current refining spreads. The stock is up ~30% over 21 days and ~18% above its 21âday SMA, making it a highâconviction nearâterm momentum play tied to oil and buyback execution.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠High returns ⢠Strong FCF ⢠Inventory risk PARR pairs high profitability and strong cash generation with very low valuation multiples, but faces moderate leverage, heavy inventory and only modest operating margins.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Above last month SMA ⢠Momentum strong ⢠Volatile recent swings Support Level: $40â$42 Resistance Level: $49â$50 PARR is trading above its last-month SMA with RSI â65 (bullish momentum yet not overbought), near-term support sits in the low $40s and resistance around $49â$50, but big lateâFeb/earlyâMar intraday swings and a concentrated run-up raise reversal risk if it breaks the lowâ$40s.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Strong 2025 results ⢠Aggressive buybacks ⢠Highâmargin distillate Par Pacific is being reârated after strong 2025 results, aggressive buybacks and float reduction, a highâmargin distillate refining edge and initial SAF moves, despite a small Q4 EPS miss.
AI Summary
Par Pacific should be reclassified as a cash-generative refinery operator that is actively returning capital (sustained buybacks and a $250m program) with selective lowâcarbon optionality (HawaiĘťi SAF) rather than a pure commodity-timing play, but the durability of this reârating hinges on sustaining distillate spreads and avoiding margin/working-capital shocks from large inventories and RIN timing. Investors should watch buyback pace versus maintenance capex and inventory mark-to-market sensitivity as the decisive risks that could reverse the valuation rerating.
Description
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy and infrastructure company that operates through three reporting segments: Refining, Retail and Logistics. Its refining operations run three refineries that produce a range of transportation fuels, asphalt and related products for regional markets including Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, Wyoming and South Dakota. The retail business runs 119 fuel and convenience locations under several brand names in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho, while the logistics segment manages terminals, pipelines, marine and trucking assets, storage facilities and other distribution infrastructure serving island markets and inland sites; the company is headquartered in Houston and was incorporated in 1984 (name changed in 2015).
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Mar 20 | PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | Refiner with strong cash and buyback catalysts: 2025 net income $369M, adjusted EBITDA $633M and ~$296M FCF support a new $250M buyback after retiring ~10% of shares in 2025. SAF partnership with Hawaiian/Alaska Airlines and distillateâheavy exposure benefit from current refining spreads. The stock is up ~30% over 21 days and ~18% above its 21âday SMA, making it a highâconviction nearâterm momentum play tied to oil and buyback execution. | Active | +0.0% |