Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Gained 5.4% over 21 trading days and closed 6.4% above a rising moving average. Strong refining margins, approximately 4.1x earnings valuation, improved liquidity, and the planned $485 million Laramie asset sale support near-term upside.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Margin Expansion ⢠Strong Cash Flow ⢠Inventory Risk PARR's sharply improved margins, liquidity, debt repayment, and strong free cash flow support an inexpensive valuation, but elevated debt and inventory concentration remain key risks.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Strong monthly gain ⢠Key resistance test ⢠Elevated volatility Support Level: $81.70â$82.10 (secondary: $79.90â$80.20) Resistance Level: $86.49 PARR gained 16% over the last month with strong momentum, but traders should watch $86.49 resistance and $81.70â$82.10 support amid elevated volatility.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Strong margins ⢠Ample liquidity ⢠Asset sale Par Pacific's strong refining margins, enhanced liquidity, and Laramie asset-sale exposure support continued growth and shareholder-return potential despite Hawaii turnaround risk.
AI Summary
PARR has evolved into a high-operating-leverage play on exceptional refining margins, with strong cash flow and Laramie monetization offering a chance to strengthen the balance sheet, but at ~$83â$84 much of this upside appears priced in; investors should prioritize evidence of durable post-cycle free cash flow, turnaround execution, and debt reduction before adding exposure.
Description
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy and infrastructure company that operates through three reporting segments: Refining, Retail and Logistics. Its refining operations run three refineries that produce a range of transportation fuels, asphalt and related products for regional markets including Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, Wyoming and South Dakota. The retail business runs 119 fuel and convenience locations under several brand names in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho, while the logistics segment manages terminals, pipelines, marine and trucking assets, storage facilities and other distribution infrastructure serving island markets and inland sites; the company is headquartered in Houston and was incorporated in 1984 (name changed in 2015).
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | Sep 23 | PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | Gained 5.4% over 21 trading days and closed 6.4% above a rising moving average. Strong refining margins, approximately 4.1x earnings valuation, improved liquidity, and the planned $485 million Laramie asset sale support near-term upside. | Closed | -9.3% |
| Jul 29 | Aug 5 | PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | Legitimate tactical momentum idea: stock is up about 48% over 21 trading days to a new 21-day high, supported by improved refining margins, record-margin sector headlines, Q1 2026 net income of $54.5M, $91.5M adjusted EBITDA, financing actions, and positive estimate/momentum headlines. | Closed | -15.8% |
| Jul 13 | Jul 20 | PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | Strong tactical momentum in refining/energy: shares rose about 25.9% over 21 trading days, recent headlines cite positive analyst sentiment and Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy status, and Q1 showed a turnaround to $54.5M net income with record Hawaii throughput. | Closed | +9.4% |
| Mar 23 | Mar 30 | PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | Par Pacific is a refiner with explosive near-term upside potential: FY2025 net income $369M and adj. EBITDA $633M, a 10% share-count reduction via repurchases at ~$19, and powerful crack-spread tailwinds from the crude spike have driven a ~45% 21âday rally, while valuation remains low (EV/EBIT ~6x), creating room for further upside if margins hold. | Closed | +11.7% |
| Mar 13 | Mar 20 | PARR | Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | Refiner with strong cash and buyback catalysts: 2025 net income $369M, adjusted EBITDA $633M and ~$296M FCF support a new $250M buyback after retiring ~10% of shares in 2025. SAF partnership with Hawaiian/Alaska Airlines and distillateâheavy exposure benefit from current refining spreads. The stock is up ~30% over 21 days and ~18% above its 21âday SMA, making it a highâconviction nearâterm momentum play tied to oil and buyback execution. | Closed | +14.1% |