Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) - Stock Analysis

Last updated: Jun 6, 2026

EnergyClosed

Research Idea

Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures

Par Pacific is a refiner with explosive near-term upside potential: FY2025 net income $369M and adj. EBITDA $633M, a 10% share-count reduction via repurchases at ~$19, and powerful crack-spread tailwinds from the crude spike have driven a ~45% 21‑day rally, while valuation remains low (EV/EBIT ~6x), creating room for further upside if margins hold.

Loading chart data...

Idea window: 3/23/2026 – 3/30/2026Sector: Energy

AI Analyst Overview

Last Price
$55.82
Market Cap
$3.23B
1D Return
+0.79%
YTD Return
+58.85%

Loading chart data...

Valuation Metrics

P/E
6.9
P/B
2.1
P/S
0.4
EV/EBITDA
5.4
Div Yield
—

Fundamental Analysis

6.0

Key Financial Insights: • Profitability strong • Cash flow deterioration • Leverage edging up PARR remains profitable and well-valued on trailing annual results, but the latest quarter shows margin compression, negative cash flow, and slightly higher leverage, making the outlook more cautious.

RefineryCycle
MarginPressure

Price Behavior

4.0

Key Price Behavior Insights: • Downtrend intact • Support holding • Rebound needs reclaim Support Level: $55.50 Resistance Level: $60.00–$61.60 PARR remains in a short-term downtrend with repeated resistance at $60.00–$61.60, but it is now basing near $55.50–$57.20 and could rebound if it reclaims $57.20, then $58.80.

bearish
oversold

Sentiment & News

5.5

Key News Insights: • Valuation Debate • $500M Financing • Earnings Miss Par Pacific shares were volatile as bullish undervaluation and financing headlines were offset by a Q1 earnings miss and a sharp post-results selloff, despite improved margins, buybacks, and investor interest.

PARR
Undervalued
AI

AI Summary

5.5
Neutral

PARR should now be viewed less as a simple cheap-refinery play and more as a cash-flow/leverage test: despite strong 2025 results and promising Hawaii/renewables upside, the Q1 2026 negative operating and free cash flow plus rising debt mean the stock is likely a value trap unless it quickly restores positive cash conversion and reclaims the $58.8–$61.6 technical zone.

CashFlow
Leverage
Turnaround
AI summary updated 6 days ago

Description

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy and infrastructure company that operates through three reporting segments: Refining, Retail and Logistics. Its refining operations run three refineries that produce a range of transportation fuels, asphalt and related products for regional markets including Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, Wyoming and South Dakota. The retail business runs 119 fuel and convenience locations under several brand names in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho, while the logistics segment manages terminals, pipelines, marine and trucking assets, storage facilities and other distribution infrastructure serving island markets and inland sites; the company is headquartered in Houston and was incorporated in 1984 (name changed in 2015).

Idea History

DateCloseTickerCompanySummaryStatusP/L
Mar 23Mar 30PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.
Par Pacific is a refiner with explosive near-term upside potential: FY2025 net income $369M and adj. EBITDA $633M, a 10% share-count reduction via repurchases at ~$19, and powerful crack-spread tailwinds from the crude spike have driven a ~45% 21‑day rally, while valuation remains low (EV/EBIT ~6x), creating room for further upside if margins hold.
Closed+11.7%
Mar 13Mar 20PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.
Refiner with strong cash and buyback catalysts: 2025 net income $369M, adjusted EBITDA $633M and ~$296M FCF support a new $250M buyback after retiring ~10% of shares in 2025. SAF partnership with Hawaiian/Alaska Airlines and distillate‑heavy exposure benefit from current refining spreads. The stock is up ~30% over 21 days and ~18% above its 21‑day SMA, making it a high‑conviction near‑term momentum play tied to oil and buyback execution.
Closed+14.1%
Research content for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. All decisions are your responsibility.