Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 14, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice.Ā Methodology & Disclosures
Pagaya Technologies shows strong operational recovery with record earnings growth and expanding asset-backed securitizations, combined with improving profitability and liquidity, although recent technical weakness suggests a near-term entry point for value-aware investors.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ā¢ Profitability recovery ā¢ High leverage ā¢ Strong cash position PGY shows a clear near-term profitability and cash-generation turnaround (quarterly net margin ~6%, EBITDA margin ~4%, EPS +$0.27) but still carries high leverage, a large accumulated deficit, and volatile valuation metrics.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ā¢ Range-bound trading ā¢ Resistance near $26 ā¢ Support ~$23ā$24 Support Level: $23ā$24 Resistance Level: $26.00 PGY is range-bound between roughly $23ā$26 with resistance near $26 and recent pullback to ~$24 signaling caution until a decisive break above $26 or below $23 confirms direction.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ā¢ Revenue/margin gains ā¢ AI underwriting ā¢ Insider selling Pagaya showed strong lateā2025/earlyā2026 operational momentumādriving revenue, margins, consecutive GAAP profits and share gainsāwhile AIādriven underwriting and improving credit metrics support scalable growth despite shortāterm stock volatility and insider sales.
AI Summary
Pagaya has shifted from a speculative AI fintech to a fundingādependent, AIādriven credit engine whose stock value now hinges on durable ABS/funding access and sustained low credit impairments rather than AI hype; monitor ABS issuance cadence and quarterly impairment runārates vs management's $100ā$150M scenario as the pivotal drivers of upside or rapid downside. If funding remains available and impairments stay low, margins and free cash flow can validate analyst upside; a funding disruption or impairment spike would quickly reverse recent profitability.
Description
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a fintech company headquartered in Tel Aviv with operations in the United States and the Cayman Islands. It provides proprietary machine-learning software and related services to help partners originate and manage loans and other credit assets, working with both fast-growing fintech firms and established lenders, including auto finance providers and brokers. Founded in 2016, the company combines data-driven models and technology to support asset origination and portfolio management processes.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5 | Dec 12 | PGY | Pagaya Technologies Ltd. | Pagaya Technologies shows strong operational recovery with record earnings growth and expanding asset-backed securitizations, combined with improving profitability and liquidity, although recent technical weakness suggests a near-term entry point for value-aware investors. | Closed | -8.5% |
| Sep 8 | Sep 15 | PGY | Pagaya Technologies Ltd. | Pagaya Technologies reported 30% revenue growth, 72% EBITDA increase, and positive net income with strong cash flow quality; stock surged ~22% in 3 weeks, supported by robust operational momentum, attractive valuation, and upcoming product launches, making it a compelling short-term growth candidate. | Closed | +12.7% |