Ferrari N.V. (RACE) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Mar 9, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Ferrari posted strong 2025 results (FCF +50%), reiterated high‑margin 2026 guidance, and is executing large multi‑year buybacks (~€3.5B through 2030); with ~11% 21‑day price momentum and supportive luxury demand, RACE offers a technically extended but well‑funded short‑term upside trade.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: • High margins • Robust FCF • Rich multiples Ferrari delivers exceptional profitability and free‑cash‑flow with high ROIC and moderate leverage, but its rich valuation limits near‑term upside.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: • Mild upward drift • Spike then fade • Elevated volatility Support Level: $333–$336 Resistance Level: $379–$392 RACE has shown a mild uptrend over the last month (close +4.6% from $334.76 to $350.08) but remains choppy after a sharp spike to $391.21 that faded into a ~10.6% pullback, leaving near-term support in the low-$330s and resistance in the high-$370s–low-$390s as the key triggers to watch.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: • Strong cashflow • Valuation reset • Volume discipline Ferrari beat expectations with strong Q4 results, buybacks and updated targets that spurred a valuation reset even as cautious unit growth and model-transition risks temper upside.
AI Summary
Ferrari has shifted from a scarcity-growth story to a cash-return, high‑ROIC luxury franchise where valuation now depends primarily on sustaining premium mix/margins and flawless F80/product rollouts—investors should therefore focus on margin execution (vs. the ~39% adj. EBITDA 2026 target) and buyback cadence, because tariff/FX pressure or rollout missteps would quickly compress its rich multiples.
Description
Ferrari N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures and sells high-performance and luxury road and racing cars, including limited-edition and track-focused models. The company also provides aftermarket services and parts, offers financing and leasing to customers and dealers, and licenses its brand across lifestyle products and theme parks; it operates museums in Maranello and Modena and manages racetracks. Ferrari distributes vehicles and branded goods via a global dealer and retail network and online, and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy, with origins dating to 1947.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13 | Feb 20 | RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Ferrari posted strong 2025 results (FCF +50%), reiterated high‑margin 2026 guidance, and is executing large multi‑year buybacks (~€3.5B through 2030); with ~11% 21‑day price momentum and supportive luxury demand, RACE offers a technically extended but well‑funded short‑term upside trade. | Closed | -3.2% |
| Sep 8 | Sep 15 | RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Ferrari delivered steady Q2 results with order backlog through 2027 and ongoing share buyback execution; shares gained ~8.9% over 3 weeks, trading above the 21-day average with room below upper Bollinger Band, supported by strong demand and product launches despite high valuation and sector headwinds. | Closed | -0.0% |