Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 14, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Rubrik reports impressive Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings beating expectations with 48% YoY revenue growth, positive free cash flow, strong AI and cloud security product innovation, and robust technical momentum (29% price surge over 21 days). These underscore its compelling near-term return prospects.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Very high gross margins ⢠Improving cash generation ⢠Negative shareholders' equity RBRK combines very high gross margins and improving FCF/liquidity with rapidly narrowing losses, but is constrained by negative equity, rising long-term debt, and large deferred revenue obligations that challenge solvency.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Downward bias ⢠Repeated resistance ⢠Double support test Support Level: $70.00 Resistance Level: $77â$79 Over the last month RBRK slid from just above $78 to about $70.82, testing support near $70 twice while failing to clear $77â$79 resistance, indicating weakening momentum and risk of further downside if $70 breaks.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠48% revenue growth ⢠Insider share sales ⢠EV/ARR 10.38x Rubrik's strong Q3 SaaS metrics, 48% revenue growth and attractive EV/ARR supported a speculative Buy upgrade and breakout stock recognition, despite significant insider sales in the mid-$70s.
AI Summary
Rubrik has materially de-risked from a pure âburn-to-growâ SaaS story into a capital-efficient, product-led security/cloud platformâpositive FCF, ~81% gross margins, and partner integrations mean the investment thesis now hinges on converting product momentum into durable ARR expansion and margin leverage. The key actionable watch is quarterly ARR/net retention and FCF versus debt servicing (large deferred revenue and ~$1.13B noncurrent debt leave solvency exposed if ARR or cash conversion falters).
Description
Rubrik provides data protection and security software for enterprise and cloud environments, including solutions for backup, threat detection, security posture management, and cyber recovery. The company sells its offerings to a wide range of industriesâsuch as finance, retail, energy, healthcare, education, technology, media and public sector organizations. Founded in 2013 and based in Palo Alto, the firm changed its name from Scaledata to Rubrik in 2014.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9 | Dec 16 | RBRK | Rubrik, Inc. | Rubrik reports impressive Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings beating expectations with 48% YoY revenue growth, positive free cash flow, strong AI and cloud security product innovation, and robust technical momentum (29% price surge over 21 days). These underscore its compelling near-term return prospects. | Closed | -14.7% |