Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 14, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Robust Q3 operational and financial performance with record margins and cash flow, ongoing aggressive share buybacks, strong technical momentum (+12.5% in last month), supported by sector tailwinds and expected production ramp-ups in 2026, qualifying it as a hot idea with moderated risks.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Profit turnaround ⢠Capex-driven FCF ⢠Low leverage TFPM has returned to profitability with sharply improved margins and EPS, but heavy capex caused a quarter of negative free cash flow and falling cash despite very low leverage and elevated valuation.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Higher highs ⢠Resistance test ⢠Support flip Support Level: $34.8â$35.5 Resistance Level: $36.5 Over the last month TFPM trended up from about $33.34 to $36.59, breaking midâDecember resistance (~$34.8â$35.5) that may now act as support while nearâterm resistance sits near $36.5 amid intermittent pullbacks and prior December volatility.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Record revenue ⢠52-week high ⢠Institutional inflows Triple Flag's record Q4 and annual revenues and GEO production, combined with a Dec. 52-week high and rising analyst and institutional support, signal strengthening fundamentals and investor confidence.
AI Summary
TFPM should be valued as a cashâflowâonâtheârun streaming/royalty platformâits upside now depends on converting elevated accounting profits and heavy capex into sustainable free cash flow via successful nearâterm ramps (Johnson Camp, Tres Quebradas, Arcata and acquired streams), so monitor ramp milestones, FCF normalization and cash burn against buybacks/dividend funding as misses would likely trigger sharp multiple compression.
Description
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a Toronto-based streaming and royalty company with a concentration in gold and exposure to silver through a portfolio of 78 assets across Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa and the United States. Established in 2016, it holds nine streams and 69 royalties and operates as a subsidiary of Triple Flag Mining Elliott and Management Co-Invest LP. Its business involves acquiring and managing precious metal streams and royalty interests globally.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | Dec 3 | TFPM | Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. | Robust Q3 operational and financial performance with record margins and cash flow, ongoing aggressive share buybacks, strong technical momentum (+12.5% in last month), supported by sector tailwinds and expected production ramp-ups in 2026, qualifying it as a hot idea with moderated risks. | Closed | +0.1% |