United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026
Financial ServicesClosed
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Explicit short-term hot setup: USO surged about 23% over 21 trading days, made a new look-back high at 149.81, and remains supported by Middle East tensions, Iran/Strait of Hormuz supply risk, tight inventories, and oil above $100.
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Idea window: 5/18/2026 – 5/25/2026Sector: Financial Services
AI Analyst Overview
Last Price
$125.43
Market Cap
$16.51B
1D Return
-2.64%
YTD Return
+81.36%
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Valuation Metrics
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Description
USO primarily holds futures contracts tied to light, sweet crude oil and other petroleum-based fuels, including refined products and natural gas. The fund obtains exposure to energy price movements through commodity futures rather than by owning physical oil.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18 | May 25 | USO | United States Oil Fund, LP | Explicit short-term hot setup: USO surged about 23% over 21 trading days, made a new look-back high at 149.81, and remains supported by Middle East tensions, Iran/Strait of Hormuz supply risk, tight inventories, and oil above $100. | Closed | -5.6% |
| Apr 29 | May 6 | USO | United States Oil Fund, LP | Oil momentum is strong: USO rose about 17% over 21 trading days to the highest close in the window, supported by Iran/Strait of Hormuz conflict fears, crude spikes, and renewed inflation concerns; best suited as a short-term news-driven momentum trade. | Closed | -11.1% |
| Apr 7 | Apr 14 | USO | United States Oil Fund, LP | Geopolitically driven crude strength (Iran conflict, >$100 oil) has produced heavy flows into oil proxies and a powerful ~27.7% 21-day rally in USO, with price well above short-term averages. As long as Middle East risk and supply-tightness headlines persist, the momentum-and-news setup supports further near-term upside, albeit with elevated mean-reversion risk. | Closed | -10.3% |
| Mar 25 | Apr 1 | USO | United States Oil Fund, LP | Direct crude-oil momentum play: USO is up ~41% over 21 trading days on Middle East/Iran supply-risk headlines, with WTI near $100 and Brent near $120; despite a pullback to ~112.5 (slightly below its ~117 10-day SMA), the combination of very strong 21-day ROC, a recent breakout, and ongoing geopolitical catalysts makes it a high-volatility, short-term upside candidate if it reclaims the 10-day SMA. | Closed | +9.4% |
| Mar 16 | Mar 23 | USO | United States Oil Fund, LP | USO is riding a geopolitically driven crude rally (Middle East escalation, supply‑risk premium), with 21‑day ROC ~+52% and price ~25% above its 21‑day SMA. While extended and volatile, the combination of strong trend and ongoing headline risk keeps it a short‑term momentum "hot" trade for tightly risk‑managed longs. | Closed | -3.9% |
| Feb 5 | Feb 12 | USO | United States Oil Fund, LP | USO reflects steady technical strength with a 9% price rise over 21 days, underpinned by bullish crude oil fundamentals, geopolitical uncertainties favoring hard assets, and positive investor sentiment. Trading above support levels near $68 with clear upward momentum, USO offers a tactical short-term growth opportunity. | Closed | -0.4% |
| Jun 30 | Jul 7 | USO | United States Oil Fund, LP | USO’s recent bullish technical signals and oil price uptrend point to potential near-term gains for traders capitalizing on continued crude strength. | Closed | +4.6% |