Commercial Metals Company (CMC) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Mar 7, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Q1 core EBITDA up ~52% YoY with margin expansion, $2.5B CP&P/Foley acquisitions, strong liquidity and trade protection news, plus ~14% 21âday price gain put CMC in a technically strong, earningsâbacked uptrend ahead of further integration and TAGâsavings updates.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Strong liquidity ⢠Rising profitability ⢠Higher leverage Latest quarter shows materially stronger liquidity and marginsâcash and working capital surged and EPS/EV multiples improvedâoffset by higher long-term debt, uneven FCF and a risky yearâend payout ratio.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Fresh short-term low ⢠Accelerating weakness ⢠Resistance clusters Support Level: $65.18 Resistance Level: $74â76 and $78â83 CMC is in a clear near-term downtrend after a ~19% decline over the last month to a fresh low at $65.18, increasing volatility and leaving resistance at $74â76 and $78â83 to reclaim before any reversal.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠North America strength ⢠TAG margin gains ⢠Europe weakness CMC shows strong North America momentum and margin expansion via the TAG program (57.9% EBITDA jump) and acquisitions, but faces European weakness, ownership sellâdowns and potential nearâterm EBITDA pressure ahead of the Mar 26 webcast.
AI Summary
CMC is no longer a pure steel mill play but a rapidly M&A-driven construction-materials platform where upside now hinges on realizing TAG synergies and integrating Foley/CP&P to deliver the targeted ~$150M TAG run-rate and drive pro forma net leverage from ~2.5x toward <2.0x within 18 months. Investors should be long only if management provides clear, quantifiable synergy metrics and a credible deleveraging cadence (quarterly leverage targets and cash-flow conversion milestones); failure to hit these integration and FCF goals is the primary downside trigger.
Description
Commercial Metals Company operates integrated steel and metal recycling, fabrication, and manufacturing businesses across the United States, Poland, China and other markets. It processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap for mills and refineries and produces finished and semi-finished long products and fabricated reinforcement used in construction, infrastructure, transportation and industrial applications; it also sells and rents construction-related equipment. The company was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | Feb 18 | CMC | Commercial Metals Company | Q1 core EBITDA up ~52% YoY with margin expansion, $2.5B CP&P/Foley acquisitions, strong liquidity and trade protection news, plus ~14% 21âday price gain put CMC in a technically strong, earningsâbacked uptrend ahead of further integration and TAGâsavings updates. | Closed | -5.4% |
| Jan 1 | Jan 8 | CMC | Commercial Metals Company | Commercial Metals Company benefits from accretive acquisitions increasing margins, strong steel demand, and positive regulatory tailwinds (anti-dumping ruling). The stock has steady price appreciation with positive technical momentum, underpinned by improved earnings and cash flow outlook, making it a solid hot idea for near-term gains. | Closed | +2.0% |
| Dec 17 | Dec 24 | CMC | Commercial Metals Company | Strong near-term growth driven by strategic acquisitions closed in December 2025 adding $250M EBITDA, operational improvements, sector tailwinds from infrastructure spending, and positive technical momentum with an 11% stock gain and technical breakout signals. | Closed | +1.1% |