Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 13, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Lemonade (LMND) demonstrates strong operational turnaround with 42% revenue growth and improved underwriting, positive adjusted free cash flow, and a 56% stock rally in 21 days. The golden cross and breakout above moving averages support substantial short-term upside amid some overbought risk.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Margin improvement ⢠Positive FCF ⢠Elevated leverage Lemonade has improved margins and turned quarterly free cash flow positive, but rising leverage, large accumulated losses and a markedly higher market valuation leave it vulnerable to any margin reversal.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Strong momentum ⢠Higher highs ⢠Pullback risk Support Level: $75â$77 Resistance Level: $86.50 Over the last month LMND has rallied sharply from the mid-December lows near $75 to about $86.50 showing strong bullish momentum but likely nearing overbought levels and vulnerable to a short-term pullback.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠AI-driven growth ⢠Institutional buys ⢠Mixed sentiment Lemonade's AI-driven insurance edge is attracting institutional interest and short-term bullish technicals, but significant volatility, mixed analyst sentiment, and stronger competitor fundamentals keep near-term outcomes uncertain.
AI Summary
Lemonade has shifted from a lossâgrowth story to an AIâdriven, marginâexpanding underwriting platform with visible freeâcashâflow inflection, meaning valuation will now hinge more on sustained grossâmargin conversion and underwriting discipline than on topâline scale alone. Investors should specifically track consecutive quarters of expanding gross profit margins, stable/lower combined ratios at higher retention, and recurring positive FCF â any reversal would likely trigger sharp downside given elevated multiples and increased leverage.
Description
Lemonade, Inc. is a New Yorkâheadquartered insurer operating in the United States and Europe that offers a range of personal and property insurance products, including renters, homeowners, auto, pet and life coverage along with liability and landlord policies. The company also distributes policies on behalf of other insurers. Incorporated in 2015, it was formerly known as Lemonade Group, Inc.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Nov 17 | LMND | Lemonade, Inc. | Lemonade (LMND) demonstrates strong operational turnaround with 42% revenue growth and improved underwriting, positive adjusted free cash flow, and a 56% stock rally in 21 days. The golden cross and breakout above moving averages support substantial short-term upside amid some overbought risk. | Closed | -15.0% |