Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) - Stock Analysis

Last updated: Jan 13, 2026

Financial ServicesClosed

Research Idea

Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures

Lemonade (LMND) demonstrates strong operational turnaround with 42% revenue growth and improved underwriting, positive adjusted free cash flow, and a 56% stock rally in 21 days. The golden cross and breakout above moving averages support substantial short-term upside amid some overbought risk.

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Idea window: 11/10/2025 – 11/17/2025Sector: Financial Services

AI Analyst Overview

Last Price
$79.41
Market Cap
$5934.39
1D Return
-0.97%
YTD Return
+11.56%

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Valuation Metrics

P/E
-33.9
P/B
11.4
P/S
9.0
EV/EBITDA
-36.9
Div Yield
—

Fundamental Analysis

7.0

Key Financial Insights: • Margin improvement • Positive FCF • Elevated leverage Lemonade has improved margins and turned quarterly free cash flow positive, but rising leverage, large accumulated losses and a markedly higher market valuation leave it vulnerable to any margin reversal.

improving
overvalued

Price Behavior

7.0

Key Price Behavior Insights: • Strong momentum • Higher highs • Pullback risk Support Level: $75–$77 Resistance Level: $86.50 Over the last month LMND has rallied sharply from the mid-December lows near $75 to about $86.50 showing strong bullish momentum but likely nearing overbought levels and vulnerable to a short-term pullback.

bullish
overbought

Sentiment & News

6.0

Key News Insights: • AI-driven growth • Institutional buys • Mixed sentiment Lemonade's AI-driven insurance edge is attracting institutional interest and short-term bullish technicals, but significant volatility, mixed analyst sentiment, and stronger competitor fundamentals keep near-term outcomes uncertain.

AIInsurer
Volatility
AI

AI Summary

6.0
Neutral

Lemonade has shifted from a loss‑growth story to an AI‑driven, margin‑expanding underwriting platform with visible free‑cash‑flow inflection, meaning valuation will now hinge more on sustained gross‑margin conversion and underwriting discipline than on top‑line scale alone. Investors should specifically track consecutive quarters of expanding gross profit margins, stable/lower combined ratios at higher retention, and recurring positive FCF — any reversal would likely trigger sharp downside given elevated multiples and increased leverage.

AIAdvantage
UnderwritingRisk
WatchMetrics
AI summary updated 5 days ago

Description

Lemonade, Inc. is a New York–headquartered insurer operating in the United States and Europe that offers a range of personal and property insurance products, including renters, homeowners, auto, pet and life coverage along with liability and landlord policies. The company also distributes policies on behalf of other insurers. Incorporated in 2015, it was formerly known as Lemonade Group, Inc.

Idea History

DateCloseTickerCompanySummaryStatusP/L
Nov 10Nov 17LMNDLemonade, Inc.
Lemonade (LMND) demonstrates strong operational turnaround with 42% revenue growth and improved underwriting, positive adjusted free cash flow, and a 56% stock rally in 21 days. The golden cross and breakout above moving averages support substantial short-term upside amid some overbought risk.
Closed-15.0%
Research content for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. All decisions are your responsibility.