Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 14, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Steel Dynamics shows favorable short-term prospects with strong Q2 results (39% QoQ operating income increase), strategic acquisition, supportive U.S. trade rulings, robust liquidity, and constructive technical gains (+8.5% over last month), though tempered by sector cyclical risks and margin pressures.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Improved liquidity ⢠Consistent margins ⢠Elevated capex/debt Steel Dynamics shows stronger liquidity and quarterly cash generation with steady margins, but faces heavy historical capex, meaningful debt, and a richer near-term valuation.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Upward momentum ⢠Established support ⢠Intraday volatility Support Level: $160 Resistance Level: $176 STLD has trended upward over the last month from about $154 to $170, establishing support near $160, facing short-term resistance around $176, and showing ~3% daily swings that imply ongoing volatility.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠52âweek high ⢠Guidance mixed ⢠Rejected bid Steel Dynamics saw late-Dec/earlyâJan volatility after setting a 52âweek high, issued Q4 guidance showing Y/Y EPS growth but seasonal sequential weakness, experienced mixed investor repositioning, pursued (and had rejected) a major bid for BlueScope, and benefited from improving steel demand and prices.
AI Summary
Steel Dynamics is morphing from a cyclical steel maker into a twoâspeed, capitalâintensive growth platform where durable cash from steel funds aggressive aluminum and recycling expansionâcreating meaningful upside if aluminum hits targeted EBITDA but posing nearâterm margin dilution, lumpy negative FCF, and higher execution/leverage risk. Monitor aluminum monthly breakeven, FY2026 capex cadence and FCF per share normalization, and any signs of integration or utilization shortfalls because misses will likely trigger rapid valuation compression.
Description
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a U.S.-based steel producer and scrap metal recycler organized into three operating segments: steel operations that manufacture flat and long steel products, rails and specialty bars and provide downstream processing and coating services; metals recycling that buys, processes and resells ferrous and nonferrous scrap while offering logistics and scrap-management services; and steel fabrication that supplies non-residential building components such as joists, trusses and deck systems. Its products serve construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, agriculture and pipe-and-tube markets and are sold to end users, fabricators and service centers domestically and abroad. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | Oct 20 | STLD | Steel Dynamics, Inc. | Steel Dynamics shows favorable short-term prospects with strong Q2 results (39% QoQ operating income increase), strategic acquisition, supportive U.S. trade rulings, robust liquidity, and constructive technical gains (+8.5% over last month), though tempered by sector cyclical risks and margin pressures. | Closed | +0.5% |