Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN) - Stock Analysis
Last updated: Jan 14, 2026
Research Idea
Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures
Exceptional short-term momentum following highly positive Phase 1/2 CARDINAL trial data in refractory CML and a $650 million equity raise; 116% price gain over past month and strong institutional demand; significant dilution and technical overextension increase volatility risk; positioned as a speculative hot idea tethered to ongoing clinical developments and regulatory milestones.
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AI Analyst Overview
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Valuation Metrics
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights: ⢠Strong liquidity ⢠Persistent losses ⢠No revenue Tern is extremely well-capitalized with negligible leverage and large cash reserves but remains unprofitable and revenueâless, burning cash and relying on market reârating rather than operating performance.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights: ⢠Confirmed resistance ⢠Testing support ⢠Recent profit-taking Support Level: $34.00 Resistance Level: $40â$42 TERN pulled back from about $40.59 to $34.45 over the last month, confirming resistance at $40â$42 and now testing critical support near $34âif $34 breaks, expect further downside.
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights: ⢠Dose/regulatory milestones ⢠Pivotal trial timing ⢠Strong cash runway Terns Pharmaceuticals is advancing TERNâ701 with midâ2026 dose/regulatory milestones, a planned pivotal secondâline trial in lateâ2026/earlyâ2027, FDA Fast Track status, and a ~$1B cash runway into 2031.
AI Summary
Re-rate Terns from a highâbeta momentum story to a capitalârich, executionâweighted clinical oncology playâDecember's ~$1B cash lift materially removes nearâterm financing risk and makes upcoming TERNâ701 readouts and FDA interactions (mid/2Hâ2026) the single binary value driver, offering concentrated upside if efficacy/safety hold but risking severe reâvaluation on failure or safety signals.
Description
Terns Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm developing orally administered small-molecule therapies for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and related metabolic disorders, including obesity. Its pipeline includes a liver-distributed FXR agonist in Phase IIa, a VAP-1 inhibitor in Phase Ib, a THRâβ agonist in Phase I, and an oral small-molecule GLPâ1 program; the company was founded in 2016 and is based in Foster City, California.
Idea History
| Date | Close | Ticker | Company | Summary | Status | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11 | Dec 18 | TERN | Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Exceptional short-term momentum following highly positive Phase 1/2 CARDINAL trial data in refractory CML and a $650 million equity raise; 116% price gain over past month and strong institutional demand; significant dilution and technical overextension increase volatility risk; positioned as a speculative hot idea tethered to ongoing clinical developments and regulatory milestones. | Closed | -15.5% |